Expertise in the Interpretation and Forecasting of Travel   

     Nancy McGuckin      
Travel Behavior Analyst

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Federal Projects and Research

National Household Travel Survey (Federal Highway Administration) – Instrumental in the design and conduct of the 2001 NHTS which combines the Nationwide Personal transportation Survey (NPTS) and the American Travel Survey (ATS). Methods analysis included: pretest of address-based and RDD procedures, pretest RDD contact procedures and results, tested prospective long-distance trip reporting vs. retrospective reporting, tested pre-contact materials. Worked with local jurisdictions wishing to purchase add-on samples of the national survey for local planning needs. The 2001 NHTS is currently being analyzed and published. Responsible for a series of short analyses on the web, including "Inklings, Early Results from the NHTS" and "Changes in the Purpose of Travel Over Time" (on-going analysis added regularly). http://npts.ornl.gov/npts/1995


NHTS Add-On Coordinator (Federal Highway Administration) – The add-on program allows states and local planning organizations to purchase enriched samples of the national survey in their planning region households plus added local household samples) for travel forecasting and transportation planning. Coordinated the outreach for the add-on program, including e-mail lists, conference talks, hand-outs and other broadcasts of the program. Helped individual add-on sponsors sort out costs and benefits, data items and model inputs, sample design, and other local issues.

National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) --In response to the WTC tragedy, the National Institute of Standards and Technology conducted a 3-year safety investigation to study the factors related to the probable cause (or causes) of post-impact collapse of the WTC Towers (WTC 1 and 2) and WTC 7.  Was part of a team studying the evacuation experience of the people in WTC1 and WTC2, helped develop and run a behavioral model of the evacuation experience based on interviews with successful evacuees, estimated that just five minutes of delay in beginning the evacuation process was detrimental to survival rates.

NPTS Transferability Study—helped analyze and steer project to use sample households in clustered census tract to develop transferable trip generation rates. Help with outreach for beta testing of resulting web-based tool to help local, MPO and State users calculate benchmark statistics for their local areas.  

"Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and Its Major Metropolitan Areas, 1960 – 2000" (Publication no. FHWA-EP-03-058) Primary author for this report which tracks trends in demographics, worker characteristics, and commuting in the U.S. and the 49 MSAs of one-million residents or more (not including San Juan, Puerto Rico). Used the decennial Census Data to look at national trends in population and workforce growth, changes in household structure, and trends in mode of travel, travel time, departure time, vehicle availability and immigration. Looked in detail at changes in place of work and place of residence, examining the implications of suburban-to-suburban growth in commutes and the effect on change in mode and travel time. Researched the changes in commuter flows for the 49 metro areas over 40 years, with a special emphasis on case studies of five metro areas. Published in 2003.

"Using the American Community Survey for Transportation Planning" (NCHRP 8-48) Currently developing a practitioner’s guidebook for using the ACS for transportation planning, providing the transportation planning community with a central reference for understanding the American Community Survey and how these data differ from the decennial census long form, the source of CTPP (Census Transportation Planning Package). In addition, the guidebook will provide transportation planners and policy makers with practical guidance and step-by-step instructions on analyzing, interpreting, and presenting American Community Survey data.

Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (Federal Highway Administration)- Researched selected areas of the 1990 and 1995 data for review and publication on the web (www.cta.ornl.gov/npts) as papers and as FAQs. Examples include the analysis of the effect of method changes in the 1995 NPTS, such as using a trip diary over recall, which showed that diary reports collected about 30% more non-work trips and that household rostering of trips resulted in nearly 10 percent more trip reports. Conducted a meta-analysis of trip rates from 10 regional travel surveys and calculated adjustment factors for trend analysis of the NPTS series. Analyzed of the effect of non-reports on VMT per person and showed the under-reporting of travel by teenage boys and over-reporting by newly retired men skewed the self-estimates of annual miles driven.

"Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning" - NCHRP Report 365 - One of the authors/primary investigators for this textbook on the application of travel data to the travel demand forecasting models. Researched the relationship between trip generation and urban form, trip chaining, and the changes in travel patterns observed since the publication of NCHRP 187 "Quick-Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters." Conducted a meta-analysis of model inputs and data needs, including the parameters obtained from nearly 20 O-D datasets used all over the country, examined the similarities and differences in data collection and reduction techniques, and compared trip generation rates by region, by urban size, by urban form, and by demographic mix. Published in 1998.

"Travel Survey Manual" (U.S. DOT and U.S. EPA) - One of the chapter authors of this well-recognized state-of-the-practice manual of procedures for the conduct of travel behavior surveys of all types. Was individually responsible for detailed descriptions of travel survey design and conduct for on-board transit, workplace, visitor, and longitudinal survey chapters. Includes discussion of statistical design and analysis, with step-by-step instructions where appropriate, information on costs and benefits of various designs, and recommendations for survey procedures. Published July, 1996.

Regional Comprehensive Travel Behavior Inventories

San Juan Metropolitan Region Planning Study (Commonwealth of Puerto Rico)- Managed major data-collection efforts encompassing home-interview, establishment, and on-board bus and jitney surveys. Forecast future population and employment and allocated to small geography based on the present land use and constraints to future development and accessibility to allocate population and employment growth to small area (TAZ).

Cleveland Household, Establishment, and Transit Surveys (NOACA, RTA, and Cleveland Growth Association)- Designed and analyzed major data-collection efforts encompassing home-interview, establishment, and on-board bus surveys. Workplace survey completed 150 sites in the greater Cleveland area. Transit survey collected statistically robust data for each route and time period. Model results used to forecast needed infrastructure improvements, including patronage on future light rail.

Bangkok Thailand Comprehensive Surveys (DeLeuw-Cather, International)- In-country (Thailand) task manager for a suite of surveys conducted to estimate ridership for new high-speed transit (MRTA). Designed an in-home personal interview household travel survey for the greater Bangkok region (few households have telephones), including developing travel diaries and forms for translation, and training field supervisors. Estimated samples and designed approach for Census non-coverage areas (squatters). Designed employee surveys for sites near potential future stations, intercept surveys of visitors, and an on-board survey for three transit vehicle types. All surveys included stated preference components to help estimate future fare strategies.

Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning (City of Shanghai, PRC)- Managed the data processing, including the statistical quality checks and analyzed the results from the home-interview origin and destination survey. Used GIS to plot demographic characteristics in small geography, and analyze land-use and socioeconomic patterns. Developed a delay factor for EMME/2 that simulated the bus-bicycle conflict at bus stops and assisted in the design solutions for intersection treatments for bicycle traffic.

Edmonton Travel Survey (Alberta, Canada) - Acted as on-site technical advisor for this travel survey to develop inputs for the creation of a utility-based household trip model. Designed a focused sample of 5,000 households in three geographic divisions and developed a questionnaire including detail on transit usage, mobility impairments, parking availability and cost, and stated-preference questions for each trip to determine elasticity of demand. Trained a staff of 50 interviewers for recruiting and data collection, and provided a management information system for sample tracking and quality control. Produced results, including sample bias and the error of the estimates for each major variable.

Establishment and Truck Projects

Greater Charlotte Region Establishment Survey (Charlotte, NC)- Developed survey techniques to collect and geocode employee addresses for a sample of basic industry, and to "borrow" trip rates for non-employee trips to Basic sites. Remainder of sample divided into "Highway Retail", "Retail", "High-Visitor Service", and "Low-Visitor Service". Responsible for sample design, quality control, weighting and analysis of the survey. Special research into the travel characteristics to mixed-use (Smart Growth or Traditional Design) developments versus strip malls.

Southeastern Pennsylvania Establishment Survey (Pittsburgh)- Responsible for deign, quality control, weighting and analysis of the survey of 166 sites in the greater Pittsburgh region. Divided service industry into "High-Visitor" and "Low-Visitor" by SIC code. Developed survey forms with detailed demographic data on employees and visitors, such as number of children, workers, etc. in household. Used personal interview techniques for employees in hard-to-survey occupations (retail, janitorial, etc.)

Dallas-Ft. Worth Workplace Survey (NCTCOG)- Responsible for deign, quality control, weighting and analysis of the survey of 270 sites in the Metroplex. Developed a sample methodology that is not skewed towards larger-sized workplaces. Designed and conducted a test of reported auto-occupancy of walk-ins vs. observed auto-occupancy of drive-throughs for restaurants and banks offering drive-through facilities.

Atlanta Regional Commission Establishment Survey (ARC)- Project manager for this large-scale survey of 270 establishments sampled across area-type in the Atlanta region. Developed the sample design, coordinated with the regional travel model for air-quality analysis, analyzed, weighted and presented the results.

El Paso, Texas-Establishment, Special Generator, and Truck Surveys Managed and conducted all phases of this major data collection using TTIs sample design and procedures, including the analysis of "activity centers" as grouped destinations for visitors.

Chicago Master Plan Update Study on Intermodal Truck Travel (CDOT) - Designed and managed this survey feeding into an economic analysis of the impact and the benefit of the growing intermodal industry in the greater Chicago region. Sites included O'Hare International Airport cargo area. The survey results were submitted to ITE for development of intermodal yard trip rates as a new category.

Baltimore-Washington International Airport Transportation Planning Study (Maryland Mass Transit Administration, MTA)- Developed a land-use inventory for the BWI area. Designed and conducted an employer/employee survey to understand work-based travel and possible transit shifts. Forecast future population, land-use, and employment by zone in five-year increments based on committed and proposed development and the analysis of present and projected zoning.

Silver Spring Survey of Commuters on Choice of Mode─ Implemented a stratified sample approach for workplace survey that decreased field costs and resulted in +/- 2 percent error at the 95% confidence level for trip attraction estimations.

Rock Spring Park Employee Transportation Survey─ Designed, managed, and analyzed employee origin-destination and attitudinal survey for trip reduction program. Included stated preference elements for transit use.

Lake-Cook Transit Corridor Workplace Survey─ Designed and managed stratified sample survey to determine potential ridership for new transit service, including analysis of access/egress mode and Areverse commute@ barriers. Included stated preference elements for patronage forecast.

Transit Projects

New Orleans Mode Choice Model Update Designed and conducted successful data collection for a tourist travel demand sub-model, including visitor survey and transit on-board survey.

WMATA Metrobus Passenger Survey for Fare Allocation─ Designed procedures for sample selection, training, and geographical analysis of trip segments by jurisdiction.

Charlotte On-Board Bus Survey ─ Managed the full system on-board bus survey, and including a smaller sample on-board with the Special Transportation Service (para transit service) including a verbal interview component.

Chicago CTA Downtown Circulator Project Designed and managed this high-profile on-board bus survey using verbal interviews for unique O-D analysis and patronage forecast.


Contact information: 

phone:
(323) 257-5144

email:
N_McGuckin@rocketmail.com

South Pasadena, CA

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