Ms. McGuckin is an independent consultant developing
expertise in the interpretation and forecasting of travel behavior. She
is best known for her ability to make meaningful information from complex
data sources. She is also trained in survey methods, and provides a full
spectrum of skills for obtaining and developing information, from
innovative ideas for survey methods and design through data mining and
interpretation for policy development and travel demand forecasting.
Statistical Analysis: Helped develop a model of
occupant behavior and egress during the evacuation of the World Trade
Centers on 9/11 (http://wtc.nist.gov/NISTNCSTAR1CollapseofTowers.pdf,
Project 7) for the National Institute of Standards and Technology.
Developed and co-authored NCHRP Report 365, which defines transferable
data for travel demand forecasting model inputs. Used data fusion
techniques and CART analysis to explore the relationship between
long-distance and local travel using NHTS and the American Travel Survey (ATS).
Survey Methods: Designs, implements, and analyzes
surveys on a wide variety of topics, including origin-destination and
attitudinal surveys used for quantifying and analyzing travel behavior.
The range of specialty designs include: household travel surveys, on-board
transit surveys, workplace surveys, special generator surveys, tourist and
visitor surveys, and truck and commodity flow surveys. Currently part of
the NYMTC Technical Advisory Committee for the large-scale address-based
household travel survey.
Public Speaking: Frequently asked to speak at public
and professional venues on travel demand, survey techniques, and/or
results of current research. Presents the result of research at TRB and
various conferences and meetings. Presents proposals during competitive
bids, describes project alternatives, and communicates results of projects
to committees, councils, and at public citizen’s meetings. Comfortable
speaking in formal or informal settings, to large groups or small.
Solicited, selected, and trained subcontractors and field personnel for
surveys conducted in the U.S. and abroad. Works well in international and
diverse settings.
Education
Continuing Education through the Joint Program in
Survey Methodology (JPSM), University of Maryland, University of
Michigan, Westat
Post-Graduate Studies, University of Maryland,
College Park, Social Psychology
Montgomery College Maryland, 1988-1989, Statistics
I and II
Bachelor of Arts, Geography/Political Science,
University of Texas at Austin (graduated with honors)
University of Isfahan, Isfahan Iran, 1978-1979,
Persian Studies and sociological research
Associations
TRB Committee on National Data Needs (ABJ10),
active member
American Association of Public Opinion Researchers
(AAPOR)
Representative Publications
“Travel Demand in the Context of Growing
Diversity”, Contrino, H. and Mcguckin, N. TR News Special Report,
September/October Issue, 2009
“Driving Miss Daisy: Women as Passengers”,
McGuckin, N. Contrino, H. Nakamoto, Y, and Santos, A. Fourth
International Conference on Women’s Travel Issues, October 2009 (TBP in
Conference Proceedings)
“Peak Travel in America”, McGuckin, N. Contrino, H.
, 12th Conference on Transportation Planning Applications, 2009 (TBP
with Conference Proceedings and nominated as best in conference)
“Demographics Matter: Travel Demand, Options, and
Characteristics Among Minority Populations”, Contrino, H. and McGuckin
N. Public Works Management Policy.2009; Vol. 13: No. 4, 361-368 DOI:
10.1177/1087724X09336223
“A Re-Examination of Methods in the US National
Household Travel Survey”, Contrino, H. McGuckin, N. ISCTSC April 2008
“Working Retirement—Travel Trends of the Aging
Workforce” Srinivasan, N., McGuckin, N. and Murakami, E. ‘Travel
Behavior and Values’, Transportation Research Record #1985, 2006
“Older Drivers, Older Cars” McGuckin, N. and Liss,
S. ITE Journal, September 2005.
“The Work Trip in the Context of Daily Travel”
McGuckin, N., Srivivasan, N., commissioned for the Census Data for
Transportation Conference, April 2005.
“Trip Chaining Trends in the US—Understanding
Travel Behavior for Policy Making”, McGuckin, N., Zmud, J. and Nakamoto,
Y. Transportation Research Record #1917 2005
“Differences in Trip-Chaining Behavior between Men
and Women”, McGuckin, N. and Nakamoto, Y., Research on Women’s Issues in
Transportation, Volume 2: Technical Papers, 2005
“Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and
Its Major Metropolitan Areas, 1960 – 2000” (Publication no.
FHWA-EP-03-058), McGuckin, N. and Srinivasan, N. 2003
“A Walk Through Time—Changes in the Landscape of
U.S. Commuting” McGuckin, N., Srinivasan, N. submitted to ITE Journal
for publication in 2004.
“Hang-ups, Call-backs, and Incompletes:
Non-Response in Telephone Surveys” McGuckin, N., Liss, S. and Keyes, M.,
presented at the Conference on Transport SurveyQulaity, South Africa,
August 2001.
“Are Households with Interrupted Phone Service Like
Those with No Telephone Service?” McGuckin, N. Banks, D. and Keyes,
M., Transportation Research Record 1768, pp 99-105, 2001
“Driving to Distractions: Recreational Trips in
Private Vehicles” Mallett, W. J. and McGuckin, N., Transportation
Research Record 1719, pp 267-272, 2000
“Intermodal Truck Traffic: Description and Results
of a Survey in Chicago” McGuckin, N. and Christopher, E., ITE Journal,
pp 38-41 December, 2000
“Exploring the Full Continuum of Travel: Data
Fusion by Recursive Partitioning Regression” Contrino, H., McGuckin, N,
and Banks, D., International Association of Travel Behavior Research
Conference (IATBR), July 2000
“Work, Automobility, and Commuting: Differences by
Race and Ethnic Backgrounds” McGuckin, N., Murakami, E. and Keyes, M.
Travel Patterns of People of
Color, PL-FHWA-00-024, June, 2000
“Understanding Trip-Chaining Behavior-A Comparison
of Travel by Men and Women” McGuckin, N. and Murakami, E.,
Transportation Research Record No.1683, 1999
“Daily Travel in the U.S. from the Nationwide
Personal Travel Survey” Maring, G. and McGuckin, N., World Conference
on Travel Research, University of Netherlands, 1997
NCHRP Report 365 “Travel Estimation Techniques for
Urban Planning”, Martin, B. and McGuckin, N. 1996
“Travel Survey Manual” (in partnership with
Cambridge Sytematics), US DOT and US EPA, July 1996
“A Treatise on Trip Generation” Hamburg, J. and
McGuckin, N., Barton-Aschman Associates (for distribution), 1990
Representative Projects: Federal Surveys and
Research
National Household Travel Survey 2008 (Federal
Highway Administration) – Instrumental in the questionnaire development
through a series of webinars with important stakeholders and topic
experts. Coordinated with special interest entities such as AARP for
senior mobility and disability questions, Safe Routes to School for
children’s travel, and large State add-ons for special local topics
(e.g., residential choice, transit use and details for non-motorized
safety analysis). Analyzed the methods for: persons under 5 years old,
the 6-day data collection window, and mileage reporting (odometer
readings. Coordinated the add-on program (14 States and 5 MPOs
purchased 130,000 additional samples), including sample design and
effect analysis.
National Household Travel Survey 2001 (Federal
Highway Administration) – Instrumental in the coordination and conduct
for this survey which combined the Nationwide Personal Transportation
Survey (NPTS) and the American Travel Survey (ATS). Methods analysis
included: pretest of address-based and RDD procedures, pretest RDD
contact procedures and results, tested prospective long-distance trip
reporting vs. retrospective reporting, tested pre-contact materials.
Coordinated the add-on program (9 States and MPOs purchased 40,000
additional samples), including sample design and weighting.
Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey 1995
(Federal Highway Administration) – Methods research to analyze the
effect of changes between 1990 and 1995 included the effect of the
travel diary, incentive effects, and trip rostering effects. Developed
‘adjustment’ factors for the 1990 to bridge the change in methods.
Developed the trip-chaining files. . Analyzed of the effect of
non-reports on VMT per person and showed the under-reporting of travel
by teenage boys and over-reporting by newly retired men skewed the
self-estimates of annual miles driven.
“Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and
Its Major Metropolitan Areas, 1960 – 2000” (Publication no.
FHWA-EP-03-058) Primary author for this report which tracks trends in
demographics, worker characteristics, and commuting in the U.S. and the
49 MSAs of one-million residents or more (not including San Juan, Puerto
Rico). Used the decennial Census Data to look at national trends in
population and workforce growth, changes in household structure, and
trends in mode of travel, travel time, departure time, vehicle
availability and immigration. Looked in detail at changes in place of
work and place of residence, examining the implications of
suburban-to-suburban growth in commutes and the effect on change in mode
and travel time. Researched the changes in commuter flows for the 49
metro areas over 40 years, with a special emphasis on case studies of
five metro areas. Published in 2003.
“Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning”
- NCHRP Report 365 - One of the authors/primary investigators for this
textbook on the application of travel data to the travel demand
forecasting models. Researched the relationship between trip generation
and urban form, trip chaining, and the changes in travel patterns
observed since the publication of NCHRP 187 “Quick-Response Urban Travel
Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters.” Conducted a
meta-analysis of model inputs and data needs, including the parameters
obtained from nearly 20 O-D datasets used all over the country, examined
the similarities and differences in data collection and reduction
techniques, and compared trip generation rates by region, by urban size,
by urban form, and by demographic mix. Published in 1998.
“Travel Survey Manual” (U.S. DOT and U.S. EPA) -
One of the chapter authors of this well-recognized state-of-the-practice
manual of procedures for the conduct of travel behavior surveys of all
types. Was individually responsible for detailed descriptions of travel
survey design and conduct for on-board transit, workplace, visitor, and
longitudinal survey chapters. Includes discussion of statistical design
and analysis, with step-by-step instructions where appropriate,
information on costs and benefits of various designs, and
recommendations for survey procedures. Published July, 1996.
Representative Projects: Regional Comprehensive
Travel Surveys
San Juan Metropolitan Region Planning Study
(Commonwealth of Puerto Rico)- Managed major data-collection (on-site)
efforts encompassing home-interview, establishment, and on-board bus and
jitney surveys. Forecast future population and employment and allocated
to small geography based on the present land use and constraints to
future development and accessibility to allocate population and
employment growth to small area (TAZ).
Bangkok Thailand Comprehensive Surveys (DeLeuw-Cather,
International)- In-country (Thailand) task manager for a suite of
surveys conducted to estimate ridership for new high-speed transit (MRTA).
Designed an in-home personal interview household travel survey for the
greater Bangkok region (few households have telephones), including
developing travel diaries and forms for translation, and training field
supervisors. Estimated samples and designed approach for Census
non-coverage areas (squatters). Designed employee surveys for sites
near potential future stations, intercept surveys of visitors, and an
on-board survey for three transit vehicle types. All surveys included
stated preference components to help estimate future fare strategies.
Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning
(City of Shanghai, PRC)- Managed the U.S.-based data processing,
including the statistical quality checks and analyzed the results from
the home-interview origin and destination survey. Used GIS to plot
demographic characteristics in small geography, and analyze land-use and
socioeconomic patterns. Developed a delay factor for EMME/2 that
simulated the bus-bicycle conflict at bus stops and assisted in the
design solutions for intersection treatments for bicycle traffic.
Edmonton Travel Survey (Alberta, Canada)- Acted as
on-site technical advisor for this travel survey to develop inputs for
the creation of a utility-based household trip model. Designed a focused
sample of 5,000 households in three geographic divisions and developed a
questionnaire including detail on transit usage, mobility impairments,
parking availability and cost, and stated-preference questions for each
trip to determine elasticity of demand. Trained a staff of 50
interviewers for recruiting and data collection, and provided a
management information system for sample tracking and quality control.
Produced results, including sample bias and the error of the estimates
for each major variable.
Representative Projects: Establishment and
Truck Surveys
Dallas-Ft. Worth Workplace Survey (NCTCOG)-
Responsible for deign, quality control, weighting and analysis of the
survey of 270 sites in the Metroplex. Developed a sample methodology
that is not skewed towards larger-sized workplaces. Designed and
conducted a test of reported auto-occupancy of walk-ins vs. observed
auto-occupancy of drive-throughs for restaurants and banks offering
drive-through facilities.
Atlanta Regional Commission Establishment Survey
(ARC)- Project manager for this large-scale survey of 270 establishments
sampled across area-type in the Atlanta region. Developed the sample
design, coordinated with the regional travel model for air-quality
analysis, analyzed, weighted and presented the results.
Chicago Master Plan Update Study on Intermodal
Truck Travel (CDOT) - Designed and managed this survey feeding into an
economic analysis of the impact and the benefit of the growing
intermodal industry in the greater Chicago region. Sites included OHare
International Airport cargo area. The survey results were submitted to
ITE for development of intermodal yard trip rates as a new category.
Baltimore-Washington International Airport
Transportation Planning Study (Maryland Mass Transit Administration,
MTA)- Developed a land-use inventory for the BWI area. Designed and
conducted an employer/employee survey to understand work-based travel
and possible transit shifts. Forecast future population, land-use, and
employment by zone in five-year increments based on committed and
proposed development and the analysis of present and projected zoning.
New Orleans Mode Choice Model Update─ Designed and
conducted successful data collection for a tourist travel demand
sub-model, including visitor survey and transit on-board survey.
Charlotte On-Board Bus Survey ─ Managed the full
system on-board bus survey, and including a smaller sample on-board with
the Special Transportation Service (para transit service) including a
verbal interview component.
Chicago CTA Downtown Circulator Project ─ Designed
and managed this high-profile on-board bus survey using verbal interviews
for unique O-D analysis and patronage forecast.
