Papers & Publications

The Carbon Footprint of Daily Travel - "This recent study examines the background on greenhouse gasses and the passengers travel role, US Fleet mix and fuel efficiency, gas costs and the effect on vehicle travel, and some thoughts on future directions." Research by McGuckin, N, 2009.  Click here for the full study.

Driving Miss Daisy - Women as Passengers - "This recent study examines the impact of several factors on transportation including: whether non-drivers ever drove, work-at-home / flexible arrival times, children's travel to school, Internet shopping and deliveries and case studies." Research presented by McGuckin, N, 2009 at the Fourth International Conference on Women's Issues in Transportation. October 2009 (TBP in Conference Proceedings).

Demographics Matter - Travel Demands, Opinions and Characteristics Among Minority Populations - "Race and ethnicity do matter in terms of travel choices, needs and opinions. many factors contribute to the differences we see in patterns of travel within population segments. Using data from the US Census Bureau and the National Household Travel Survey Program, this paper examines the demographic characteristics of minority populations and the resulting differences in their travel behavior." Research paper by Contrino, H. and McGuckin, N., Public Works Management & Policy, 2009; Vol. 13: No. 4, 361-368 DOI: 10.1177/1087724X09336223 Click here to read full article.

Employment Data: Uses, Sources and Challenges - "This recent study examines the type and distribution of commercial and residential land-use that gives each city its unique character, and the travel systems that give each city its unique traffic patterns." Research paper by McGuckin, N. Click here for full article.

Long Distance Travel in the United States - "This recent study examines the long distance travel patterns in the US including air, bus, train and personal vehicle. for commuting, business travel, pleasure and personal reasons." Research presented by McGuckin, N., Submitted January 2009 at the TRB annual conference. Click here for full presentation.

Peak Travel in America - "Understanding peak period vehicle travel is vital for transportation finance, congestion, and air quality policies...The US transportation system will face many challenges in the next 20 years: economic and finance, safety and the aging driving pool, immigration and migration, just to name a few....Traditional indicators of travel demand may have to be re-analyzed to ensure that the changing demographic patterns...as peak travel continues to evolve through the 21st century." Author/presenter: McGuckin, Co-Authors: N, Contrino, H. and Nakamoto, H. 12th Conference on Transportation Planning Applications, 2009 (TBP with Conference Proceedings and nominated as best in conference)  Click here for full abstract.

Travel Demand in the Context of Growing Diversity - "Researchers, practitioners and policy makers discussed implications of the changing demographic patterns on transportation in the US, including travel behavior, public policy, aging, cultural patterns, safety, immigration, air quality and traffic volume, travel needs and infrastructure development." Research presented by Contrino, H. and McGuckin, N., Presented at the Transportation System Conference, October 2008. Click here for complete article.

A Re-Examination of Methods in the US National Household Travel Survey - Contrino, H. McGuckin, N. ISCTSC April 2008.

The 'Starbucks Effect' -  Pursuit of a Grande Latte May Be Stirring Up Gridlock - This research presents "evidence that the national craving for gourmet coffee may be adding mileage to the morning rush hour. And the numbers might be significant enough to complicate efforts to reduce traffic congestion, save fuel and reduce air pollution." Research by McGuckin, N., 2005. Click Here to see the Washington Post article, published April 18, 2005. 

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An Exploration of the Internet’s Effect on Travel - "It is clear that the Internet, like other paradigm-shifting technologies, is going to change travel behavior as it changes Americans lifestyles...The relationship between the Internet and travel is complex...We offer up a new paradigm for describing the effect of the Internet on travel...We contend that the effect on travel is dependant on the availability and utility of the Internet applications to accomplish various daily activities.... the impact of e-commerce on home delivery of goods, and the Internet as a possible explanation for shifts in time use. Our research shows that we may be seeing trends in the amount of time spent at home and the miles of travel by purpose for the cohort of early adopters of Internet use...data from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS)...the USPS Household Diary Study (HDS), Current Population Survey (CPS), and American Time Use Survey (ATUS) are used....Research paper by Contrino, H. and McGuckin, N., Submitted 08/01/2006 for publication TRB 2007. Click here for article.

Long Distance Travel - "Overall, about 2.6 billion long-distance trips are taken by U.S. residents every year. These are trips of 50 miles or more away from home (100 miles in round-trip distance) for people of all ages, by all modes of travel, and for any purpose, Many people never travel that far from home--169 million people (61 percent of the population) do not make any long distance trips in an average year. In fact, just 5 percent of the population takes 25 percent of the long distance trips...." See NPTS Brief by McGuckin, N., March 2006.

Mobility and the Melting Pot - "Research confirms that men and women travel differently. Men make fewer but longer trips, work farther from home, and when men and women travel together in a vehicle, men typically drive. Women make more but shorter trips, often doing the business of daily life—ferrying the kids, shopping, and running errands. Working women insert these short trips into their commutes, and are more likely to adopt flex-time and change commute times or routes to avoid congestion. The amount of difference between men and women’s travel also varies by race and ethnic origin...."  accepted for publication TRB. NPTS Brief by McGuckin, N., Liss, S, and Srinivasan, N., January 2006, Click here for article.

Working Retirement – Travel Trends of the Aging Workforce - "In a few years, the first of the baby boom generation (the 76 million of Americans born between 1946 and 1964) will reach traditional retirement age. The generation that overflowed schools in their early years and generated a suburban housing boom in their middle years will possibly change the nature of travel and commuting as they shift into ‘working retirement’....The proportion and number of older workers (those over the age of 65) is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades, and examining this cohort’s travel behavior may provide insight into this potential future boom....working patterns of the older population today, to examine their work trips, and to make some guesses about how the baby boomer generation will be similar or differ from today’s older population.... commute and occupational characteristics of older workers in the work force...projected increase in miles driven by older population groups, trends in labor force participation, occupations of older workers, overall travel patterns, travel time, and mode-to-work characteristics; examination of race and ethnic origin of older workers, and description of older worked-at-home population." Research by Srinivasan, N., McGuckin, N, and Murakami, E., ‘Travel Behavior and Values’, Transportation Research Record #1985, 2006 Click for complete research paper.

Is Congestion Slowing us Down? - "The U.S. transportation system’s quality and pervasiveness are almost transparent to us as we move between jobs, markets, education, healthcare, and leisure activities. But the transparency ends when congestion occurs—the system breaks down as too many vehicles try to move through at the same time. Congestion reduces mobility and increases auto-operating costs, adds to air pollution, and causes stress. Congestion is considered one of the major urban transportation problems. Americans are spending more time to travel about the same distance in an average day (all trips for all purposes). The average driver spends over an hour a day behind the wheel, 24 percent more time than in 1990 ...." Click here for the full NPTS Brief by McGuckin, N, February 2006.

Poverty and Mobility in America - "The tragedy in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina showed how people in poverty are metaphorically and literally immobilized—stuck in place because of lack of resources. Although an emergency planner can tell you that there are always people who stay behind during an evacuation—because they "didn’t hear" the evacuation warning, or had weathered storms before and thought they could do it again, or even for the fact that most shelters don’t accept pets, in New Orleans the number of people who didn’t evacuate was multiplied dramatically by the city’s high number of people without cars. Over 125,000 people in the City of New Orleans lived in families where no one had access to a vehicle. Of course, many of those families were poor, and many poor families are poorest right before the first of the month when government assistance checks typically arrive (Katrina hit on the 29 of September). People in poverty, those without cars, the elderly who live alone, and people with language or transportation disabilities have special daily travel patterns and may have special mobility issues. Understanding the needs of the most vulnerable in our population goes to the heart of the ideal of mobility, and tests the heart of our nation. Equity in transportation and security binds the nation together, while inequity divides us...." complete NPTS Brief by Liss, S., McGuckin, N, and Srinivasan, N., February 2006. Click here for article.

Aging cars, Aging Drivers - "This upcoming article for the Institute of Traffic Engineer's (ITE) Journal looks at the aging vehicle fleet and the impact of personal and vehicle longevity on the safety of older drivers..." Click here to view the research paper by McGuckin, N., Liss, S., ITE Journal, September 2005. And here for a snapshot analysis of the 1995 Travel Survey.

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The Starbucks Effect' - Pursuit of a Grande Latte May Be Stirring Up Gridlock - As seen on Good Morning America "...the national craving for gourmet coffee may be adding mileage to the morning rush hour. And the numbers might be significant enough to complicate efforts to reduce traffic congestion, save fuel and reduce air pollution." McGuckin, N, April 2005.
   Click Here to see the Washington Post article (Monday, April 18, 2005),
  A short PowerPoint  presentation on trends in trip chaining
  The full  PowerPoint Presentation
  The Research paper submitted to the Conference on Women's Travel issues (Chicago, November 2004).

Race, Sex and Age - The Impact of Race, Sex and Age in Travel Behavior was the topic of a recent presentation to the National Press Foundation -  click here to see the PowerPoint presentation presented by McGuckin, N., 2005.

The Work Trip in the Context of Daily Travel - "As the transportation community moves into the future, planners wonder if focusing on the work trip as the basis of travel forecasting is the right approach. This research paper and PowerPoint were presented to the Conference on Women's Travel issues (Chicago, November 2004). This analysis looks at the journey-to-work as part of the whole picture of daily travel...." McGuckin, N. and Srinivasan, N.,  commissioned for the Census Data for Transportation Conference, April, (TBP) and presented at the Census Data for Transportation Planning Conference, May 2005.

Trends in Trip Chaining in the US - Understanding Travel Behavior for Policy Making - "The idea of trip-chaining has been encouraged as a way to decrease pollution, help ease congestion, and possibly save fuel. This research paper looks at the trends in trip chaining behavior in the U.S. and finds some surprising results...." McGuckin, N., Zmud, J. and Nakamoto, Y. Transportation Research Record  #1917, pp199-204, 2005.

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Differences in Trip Chaining between Men and Women - This PowerPoint  and research paper review "Travel as a "gendered" activity, and men and women travel differently, often because women do more household-sustaining trips than men. Nowhere is that more apparent than in stops on the way to or from work...." McGuckin, N. and Yakamoto, Y Research on Women’s Issues in Transportation, Volume 2: Technical Papers, 2005.

Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and Its Major Metropolitan Areas, 1960 – 2000 - (Publication no. FHWA-EP-03-058), "Primary author for this report which tracks trends in demographics, worker characteristics, and commuting in the U.S. and the 49 MSAs of one-million residents or more (not including San Juan, Puerto Rico). Used the decennial Census Data to look at national trends in population and workforce growth, changes in household structure, and trends in mode of travel, travel time, departure time, vehicle availability and immigration. Looked in detail at changes in place of work and place of residence, examining the implications of suburban-to-suburban growth in commutes and the effect on change in mode and travel time. Researched the changes in commuter flows for the 49 metro areas over 40 years, with a special emphasis on case studies of five metro areas. The time and means American commuters use to get to work is affected by demographic and worker characteristics, the supply and location of jobs and housing, and the time and convenience of various modes of commuting. The commute trip is so important in understanding people’s daily travel that the U.S. Census started including questions about commuting in 1960, so with the 2000 Census we have 40 years of decennial data." McGuckin, N. and Srinivasan, N. 2003
Some of the changes that impact commuting trends are:
▪ Changes in family structure and workforce composition
▪ Growth in area, population, and workers in suburban counties of major MSAs
▪ Large increases in households with multiple vehicles
▪ Increases in private vehicle use and significant increases in commute times

A Walk Through Time—Changes in the Landscape of U.S. Commuting - McGuckin, N., Srinivasan, N. submitted to ITE Journal for publication in 2004. Click for full article.

Hang-ups, Call-backs, and Incompletes: Non-Response in Telephone Surveys - "Telephone surveys are the standard practice for obtaining data on household travel in the U.S. But, telephone-based travel surveys seem to be suffering from declining response rates. This paper looks at a couple of stops along the continuum of non-response." McGuckin, N., Liss, S. and Keyes, M., submitted to the 2004 annual meeting of the Transportation Research Board, August 2003, presented at the Conference on Transport Survey Quality, South Africa, August 2001.

An Analysis Comparing Households with Interrupted Phone Service to Those with No Telephone Service - "The analysis presented here compares the characteristics and travel of people with a history of interrupted telephone service (in the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey) to those who have no telephone service at the home in the 1990 Census. If households with interrupted telephone service can be used to represent households without any service at all, these two groups should be similar." McGuckin, N. Banks, D. and Keyes, M., Transportation Research Record 1768, pp 99-105, 2001. Click here for article.

Driving to Distractions, Recreational Trips in Private Vehicles - "A large and growing amount of automobile travel is for recreational purposes. The impact on recreational travel of telecommuting, teleshopping, and telebanking remains unclear. Historically, enhanced communication with distant people and information about distant places has generally led to more travel not less." Mallett, W. J. and McGuckin, N., Transportation Research Record 1719, pp 267-272, 2000. Click here for research presentation.

Intermodal Truck Traffic: Description and Results of a Survey in Chicago - "As part of a growing global economy an increasing portion of goods from domestic and foreign markets travel through intermodal sites. Intermodal freight is packaged in containers that are lifted from one carrier to another (as from truck to rail) or on trailers that piggy-back onto flatbed rail cars. The location factors, market dynamics, and technological changes that have shaped and are shaping the intermodal carrier industry are difficult to forecast." McGuckin, N. and Christopher, E., ITE Journal, pp 38-41 December, 2000. Also see additional information at www.ITE.org

Exploring the Full Continuum of Travel: Data Fusion By Recursive Partitioning Regression- "This research paper describes the need for data fusion in federal statistics and outlines previous work on data fusion approaches.  We detail the recursive partitioning analyses we perform (CART), and interpret the results.  Finally we address the problem of data fusion using the refined partition, and place this in the context of statistical methods for record matching." Contrino, H., McGuckin, N, and Banks, D., International Association of Travel Behavior Research Conference (IATBR), July 2000

Work, Automobility, and Commuting: Differences by Race and Ethnic Backgrounds - "For many Americans the car is a comfortable haven as they travel in solitude from suburban home to suburban workplace. But another picture shows the everyday commuting experience of families in poverty, in the core of older cities and older suburbs, who are stuck in low-paid service jobs, without a car, and few travel options. This group is primarily composed of African-Americans, Hispanics, and newer immigrants." McGuckin, N., Murakami, E. and Keyes, M. Travel Patterns of People of Color, PL-FHWA-00-024, June, 2000. Click here for article.

Understanding Trip-Chaining Behavior-A Comparison of Travel by Men and Women - "A Comparison of Travel by Men and Women" - Gender and household life-cycle together affect daily travel behavior. While this makes intuitive sense, transportation planners and policy makers have done little to understand what effect and impact these factors have on daily transportation choices." More.... McGuckin, N. and Murakami, E., Transportation Research Record No.1683, 1999. Click for full article.

Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning - NCHRP Report 365 - "One of the authors/primary investigators for this textbook on the application of travel data to the travel demand forecasting models. Researched the relationship between trip generation and urban form, trip chaining, and the changes in travel patterns observed since the publication of NCHRP 187 “Quick-Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters.” Conducted a meta-analysis of model inputs and data needs, including the parameters obtained from nearly 20 O-D datasets used all over the country, examined the similarities and differences in data collection and reduction techniques, and compared trip generation rates by region, by urban size, by urban form, and by demographic mix." Published in 1998.

Daily Travel in the U.S. from the Nationwide Personal Travel Survey - Maring, G. and McGuckin, N., World Conference on Travel Research, University of Netherlands, 1997

NCHRP Report 365 -Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning -  Martin, B. and McGuckin, N. 1996

Travel Survey Manual - (with Cambridge Sytematics), US DOT and US EPA, July 1996 - One of the chapter authors of this well-recognized state-of-the-practice manual of procedures for the conduct of travel behavior surveys of all types. Was individually responsible for detailed descriptions of travel survey design and conduct for on-board transit, workplace, visitor, and longitudinal survey chapters. Includes discussion of statistical design and analysis, with step-by-step instructions where appropriate, information on costs and benefits of various designs, and recommendations for survey procedures. Published July, 1996.

A Treatise on Trip Generation - "Trip generation data are either obtained from cordon counts or from reports of travel from respondents to home interview surveys. It is these two approaches to problem solution that we will attempt to reconcile in this review. Why are the ITE trip generation rates different than the rates obtained from household travel surveys? Does the use of conventional site impact procedures overstate the traffic impacts of regional shopping centers? These issues can only be dealt with in a more encompassing analysis of trip generation rates."  Hamburg, J. and McGuckin, N., Barton-Aschman Associates (for distribution), 1990. Click for information.

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