Summary:

Ms. McGuckin is a senior advisor and consultant to Federal, State, and local public agencies and private clients. She specializes in interpreting and forecasting travel behavior across all modes and uses her special skills in assembling and analyzing data to develop trends and test hypotheses.  She: 

· Designs efficient and focused primary data collection tools, and leverages existing data sources in creative ways 

· Draws insightful and meaningful information from complex data sources, and  

· Crafts effective presentations, reports, and briefs for technical audiences, decision makers, and the general public. 

She is best known for her ability to make meaningful information from complex data sources. She is also trained in survey methods. In short, Ms. McGuckin provides a full spectrum of skills for obtaining data and developing information in service of specific transportation research needs, travel demand forecasting, and broader policy initiatives. Some of her recent work includes: 

Travel Behavior Trends 

Analyzing long-term trends in workforce participation and the role of commuting in travel behavior (current: Commuting in America IV NCHRP 8-36 Task III) 

Investigated trends in older American’s leisure travel and researched trends in travel by the Baby Boom cohort, 1968 through 2009 (AARP Public Policy Institute, TBP) 

Studied and presented long-term and recent trends in the demographic components of personal travel (“Summary of Travel Trends, 2009 National Household Travel Survey”  http://nhts.ornl.gov/publications  ) 

Forecast travel by demographic cohort and geographic location for the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission  (www.transportationfortomorrow.com/  ) 

Policy Initiatives

Examining the opportunities and barriers for US High-Speed Rail Projects (TRB Committee for a Study of Intercity Passenger Travel Issues and Opportunities in Short-haul Markets ( http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/committeeview.aspx?key=49453  )) 

Focusing on understanding the behavior of younger travelers related to declines in driving (current: TCRP J-11/Task 17 “Serving the Mobility Preferences of Generation Y”) 

Developing and testing hypothesis related to the relation between demand-side and supply-side for long-distance travel (current: FHWA, Travel Analysis Framework)  

Emerging Issues 

Calculated estimates of CO ²  at census tract level for sustainable community performance measures, measuring effects of TOD and developing outreach to encourage behavior shifts to sustainable travel (for City of Pasadena) 

Analyzed factors related to pedestrians and bicycle activity and calculated exposure for non-motorized accident rates (for Caltrans/UC-Davis) 

Examined the future of electric vehicle penetration in “Improving Travel Behavior Data for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Scoping Study” (for AASHTO/NCHRP 08-36, Task 108) 

Representative Research:            

National Household Travel Survey 1995-2009 (Federal Highway Administration) – Ms. McGuckin is well-known for her work with the NHTS data program, for which she was the lead technical consultant for FHWA (under a series of contracts) from February 1997 through Sept. 2011. She worked on all phases of the program from data collection methods to outreach and analysis. Her contributions included: adjusting the 1990 NPTS to account for the effects of method changes, analyzing the effect of the memory-jogger/diary and incentives (1995), comparison of address-based and RDD, prospective long-distance trip reporting vs. retrospective reporting (2001) and cell-phone only sample (2009). Ms. McGuckin led the partnership with the Energy Information Administration (EIA-DOE) to add fuel efficiency to the vehicle file, conducted outreach to stakeholders and topic experts for questionnaire development, and coordinated the add-on program with States and MPOs. At all times she provided analysis of survey results through policy briefs, reports, presentations, and satisfied a broad range of data user requests. Briefs and publications available at:  http://nhts.ornl.gov

“Summary of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel Survey” (Publication no. FHWA-PL-11-02 Ms. McGuckin was a principal author for this report that analyzes important travel indicators over a period of 40 years—1969 to 2009--obtained in the national travel survey data series. A wide range of topics are covered, including trends in travel related to household size and wealth, trends in travel behavior by different age groups, changes in the amount and type of travel for different purposes, and travel behavior of special populations. Margins of error were developed for all travel statistics to separate data ‘noise’ from true trends.  http://nhts.ornl.gov/publications.shtml 

“Walking and Biking in California: Analysis of the California Add-on of the National Household Travel Survey” (TBP) California purchased one of the largest add-on samples to the 2009 NHTS—over 18,000 households--with the goal of understanding and calculating pedestrian risk factors for the state and for each of its Districts. Ms. McGuckin analyzed the number and miles of walking and biking, calculated standard errors, and showed the use of these data with the FARS fatality reports and state-collected accident and injury data to develop relative risk factors. The data were sufficient to include major metro areas in the analysis, and the report will serve as a benchmark for performance measures related to improving the environment for walking and biking in California.  

“Improving Travel Behavior Data for Alternate Fuel Vehicles” (NCHRP 8-36 Task 108, with CS and TTI). This exploratory research examined the market penetration potential and data obtained from and about electric vehicles from three perspectives: car manufacturers, utility companies, and national/renewable energy labs. The purpose of the research was to identify opportunities for using such data to supplement travel behavior data used in policy and planning, and assess the opportunities of data sharing across the main stake-holder groups. Data gaps identified included natural driving behavior, range anxiety and charging behavior, and attitudinal data about adoption and use of electric vehicles.  

“Long-Distance and Rural Travel Transferable Parameters for Statewide Travel Forecasting Models” (NCHRP 8-84, with CS). This Guidebook presented transferable parameters that can be used to produce estimates of person trips and miles for long distance travel and trip generation rates for households in rural areas. The long-distance analysis included comparing travel characteristics from different sources (statewide long distance surveys for Ohio and California along with older national resources) and trying to determine the common elements. Variations were noted in trip definition and length, trip purposes, and estimates of travel within- or outside of the state of residence. Mode choice differences based on supply-side factors (such as distance to the nearest airport) and trip type (travel party size) were also determined. Report will be published in 2012. 

“Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and Its Major Metropolitan Areas, 1960 – 2000” (Publication no. FHWA-EP-03-058) Ms. McGuckin was the primary author for this report which tracks trends in demographics, worker characteristics, and commuting in the U.S. and the MSAs of one-million residents or more. National trends in population and workforce growth, changes in household structure, and trends in mode of travel to work, travel time, departure time, vehicle availability and immigration are all developed for constant geography using the decennial Census.  http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census_issues/ctpp/data_products/journey_to_work/index.cfm

“Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning” - NCHRP Report 365 – Ms. McGuckin was the lead technical analysis and co-author for this textbook on the application of travel data to the travel demand forecasting models. She researched the relationship between trip generation and urban form, trip chaining, and the changes in travel patterns observed since the publication of NCHRP 187 “Quick-Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters.” She led the team to conduct a survey of MPO model needs and a meta-analysis of model inputs, including the parameters obtained from nearly 20 O-D datasets used all over the country, examined the similarities and differences in data collection and reduction techniques, and compared trip generation rates by region, by urban size, by urban form, and by demographic mix. Finally, she used the 1990 NPTS (with methodological edits) to develop travel model inputs for trip generation for metro areas of different sizes. 

http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/21000/21500/21563/PB99126724.pdf

Representative Projects:  

San Juan Metropolitan Region Planning Study to Develop Ridership Forecasts for Tren Urbano, Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (with Barton-Aschman/Deleuw Cather) - The Tren Urbano was funded through multiple sources as both a transportation project—to relieve the congestion of the San Juan Urban Area--and as urban renewal/economic stimulus. The preliminary work was conducted starting in 1989 through a consortium headed by DeLeuw Cather, and ridership forecasts and alignment was finalized by 1993. Ms. McGuckin developed base year and future forecasts of population and employment and allocated the growth to small geographic areas based on the present of current land use by type and constraints to future development, including terrain and slope, watershed and flood plain, and protected natural areas. Delphi sessions were conducted to obtain information from real estate developers on potential and/or likely new development areas. The network was modeled to define accessibility and the forecasts were applied to estimate transit ridership sheds for development horizon years. 

National Institute of Standards and Technology World Trade Center Investigation – Ms. McGuckin helped develop a model of occupant behavior and egress during the evacuation of the World Trade Centers on 9/11. With the lead from UC she used complex causal modeling to determine the factors and social processes (the major paths of casual links between variables) that influenced people delaying the initiation of their evacuation out of World Trade Center Towers 1 and 2 on September 11, 2001. Evacuation delay was found to be positively correlated with ‘helping behaviors’, and a five minute or more delay was found to be significant in increased mortality. http://wtc.nist.gov/NISTNCSTAR1CollapseofTowers.pdf, Project 7 

Bangkok, Thailand MRTA Ridership Forecasts (DeLeuw-Cather, International) - Ms. McGuckin worked closely with an international team of economists, engineers, and specialists to develop ridership estimates for the new high-speed transit (MRTA). She was the in-country (Thailand) task manager for this major data collection effort. Ms. McGuckin designed an in-home personal interview household travel survey for the greater Bangkok region (few households have telephones), including developing travel diaries and forms for translation, and training field supervisors. Specialty approaches included sample estimation for Census non-coverage areas (squatters), employee surveys for sites near potential future stations, intercept surveys of visitors, and an on-board survey for three transit vehicle types. All designs included stated preference components to help estimate future fare strategies. With Barton-Ashman  Associates/DeLeuw Cather.

Edmonton Travel Survey (Alberta, Canada) – Ms. McGuckin worked with a local team as on-site technical advisor for this travel survey to develop inputs for the creation of a utility-based household trip model. Designed a focused sample of 5,000 households in three geographic divisions and developed a questionnaire including detail on transit usage, mobility impairments, parking availability and cost, and stated-preference questions for each trip to determine elasticity of demand. Trained a staff of 50 interviewers for recruiting and data collection, and provided a management information system for sample tracking and quality control. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Cleveland Household, Establishment, and Transit Surveys (NOACA, RTA, and Cleveland Growth Association) – Ms. McGuckin designed and supervised this major data-collection effort encompassing home-interview, establishment, and on-board bus surveys. Workplace survey completed 150 sites in the greater Cleveland area. Transit survey collected statistically robust data for each route and time period. Model results used to forecast needed infrastructure improvements, including patronage on future light rail. With Barton-Ashman Associates/DeLeuw Cather. 

Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning, City of Shanghai, PRC (Barton-Aschman/DeLeuw Cather) - Ms. McGuckin managed the U.S.-based data team to develop a city-wide plan and ridership forecasts for the high speed rail from Long Yang Road Metro Station to the Pudong International Airport (opened in 2002). Ms. McGuckin worked closely with the PRC team to collect and analyze existing data on population and employment. She developed an award-winning method to summarize and visualize demographic characteristics in small geographic clusters to help analyze land-use and socioeconomic patterns using ACAD. She also developed a delay factor for EMME/2 that simulated the bus-bicycle conflict at bus stops and assisted in the design solutions for intersection treatments for bicycle traffic. With Barton-Ashman Associates/DeLeuw Cather. 

El Paso, Texas Establishment, Special Generator, and Truck Surveys ─ Ms. McGuckin managed and conducted all phases of this major data collection using TTIs sample design and procedures, including the analysis of "activity centers" as grouped destinations for visitors. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Chicago Master Plan Update Study on Intermodal Truck Travel (CDOT) – Ms. McGuckin designed and managed this survey feeding into an economic analysis of the impact and the benefit of the growing intermodal industry in the greater Chicago region. Sites included O’Hare International Airport cargo area. The survey results were published in ITE Journal and used to develop trip rates for intermodal yards as a new category. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Greater Charlotte Region Establishment Survey (Charlotte, NC) – Ms. McGuckin developed survey techniques to collect and geocode employee addresses for a sample of basic industry, and to "borrow" trip rates for non-employee trips to Basic sites. Remainder of sample divided into "Highway Retail", "Retail", "High-Visitor Service", and "Low-Visitor Service". She conducted special research into the travel characteristics to mixed-use (Smart Growth or Traditional Design) developments versus strip malls. With Barton-Ashman Associates. 

Southeastern Pennsylvania Establishment Survey (Pittsburgh) – Ms. McGuckin was responsible for design, quality control, weighting and analysis of the survey of 166 sites in the greater Pittsburgh region. The design divided service industry into "High-Visitor" and "Low-Visitor" by SIC code. Ms. McGuckin researched and tested methods, such as personal interview techniques for employees in hard-to-survey occupations (retail, janitorial, etc.) With Barton-Ashman Associates. 

Dallas-Ft. Worth Workplace Survey (NCTCOG)- Dallas-Ft. Worth Workplace Survey (NCTCOG)- Ms. McGuckin was project manager responsible for the design, quality control, weighting and analysis of the survey of 270 sites in the Metroplex. She developed and tested a sample methodology that is not skewed towards larger-sized workplaces. She designed and conducted a test of reported auto-occupancy of walk-ins vs. observed auto-occupancy of drive-throughs for restaurants and banks offering drive-through facilities. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Atlanta Regional Commission Establishment Survey (ARC) – Ms. McGuckin was project manager for this large-scale survey of 270 establishments sampled across area-type in the Atlanta region. She developed the sample design coordinated with the regional travel model for air-quality analysis, and she analyzed, weighted and presented the results. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Baltimore-Washington International Airport Transportation Planning Study (Maryland Mass Transit Administration, MTA)- Ms. McGuckin developed a land-use inventory for the BWI area, designed and conducted an employer/employee survey to understand work-based travel and possible transit shifts, and developed a forecast of future population, land-use, and employment by zone in five-year increments based on committed and proposed development and the analysis of present and projected zoning. With Barton-Ashman Associates. 

New Orleans Mode Choice Model Update─ Ms. McGuckin designed and conducted successful data collection of tourists to three areas in New Orleans, including the French Quarter, for a tourist travel demand sub-model. The visitor data was supplemented with a transit on-board and specialty surveys of the light rail lines to estimate future visitor ridership of proposed new light rail service. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Charlotte On-Board Bus Survey ─Ms. McGuckin managed the full system on-board bus survey including a smaller sample on-board with the Special Transportation Service (para-transit service) including a verbal interview component. With Barton-Ashman Associates.  

Chicago CTA Downtown Circulator Project ─ Ms. McGuckin designed and managed this high-profile on-board bus survey using verbal interviews for unique O-D analysis and patronage forecast. With Barton-Ashman Associates. 

Education, Associations and Appointments: 

Joint Program in Survey Methodology (JPSM), University of Maryland, University of Michigan, continuing education 

Post-Graduate Studies, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (1997-1998) Psychology 

Montgomery College Maryland (1988) and SAS Institute, Cary, NC, (1991), Statistics  

Bachelor of Arts, Geography/Political Science, University of Texas at Austin (graduated with honors) 

University of Isfahan, Isfahan Iran, 1978-1979, Junior year abroad with special research grant 

TRB Committee on National Data Requirements (ABJ10) 

TRB Committee on Urban Data and Information Systems (ABJ30) 

TRB Committee for a Study of Intercity Passenger Travel and Opportunities in Short-Haul Markets 

TRB Task Force on New Directions for the National Household Travel Survey (ABJ45T) 

ITE Trip Generation Handbook, 3rd Edition Update Subcommittee on Use of Travel Survey Data for Site Specific Applications 

Center for Disease Control Active Transportation Expert Panel 

The Transportation Statistics Interest Group (coordinated by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the American Statistical Association) 

WTS-Los Angeles Chapter 

Publications: 

“Summary of Travel Trends: National Household Travel Survey”, Santos, A., McGuckin, N., Nakamoto, Y., and Grey, D. 2011 FHWA-PL-11-022, at:  http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf

“Poor People’s Use of Different Modes of Public Transit: Is There a Conflict between Rail and Bus Services?” Rosenbloom, S., McGuckin, N. presented at: Using NHTS for Transportation Decision Making Workshop, June 6, 2011 TBP 

“Driving Miss Daisy: Women as Passengers”, McGuckin, N. Contrino, H. Nakamoto, Y., and Santos, A. Women’s Issues in Transportation, Vol. 2: Technical Papers, 2010 at:  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/webmedia/trbmedia/women/McGuckin.pdf

“Travel Demand in the Context of Growing Diversity”, Contrino, H. and McGuckin, N. TR News Special Report (cover story), September/October Issue, 2009 at:  http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/trnews/trnews264TravelDemand.pdf

“The Challenges of Surveying 'Hard to Reach' Groups”, Chapter 8 in Transport Survey Methods: Keeping Up with a Changing World ; Behrens, R. Freedman, M., McGuckin, N. July 2009 at: 

http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=923623

“Peak Travel in America”, McGuckin, N. Contrino, H., 12^th Conference on Transportation Planning Applications, 2009 (nominated as best in conference) at:  http://pubsindex.trb.org/view.aspx?id=910150

“Demographics Matter: Travel Demand, Options, and Characteristics Among Minority Populations”, Contrino, H. and McGuckin N. Public Works Management Policy.2009; Vol. 13: No. 4, 361-368  DOI: 10.1177/1087724X09336223 at:  http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=901821

“Working Retirement—Travel Trends of the Aging Workforce” Srinivasan, N., McGuckin, N. and Murakami, E. ‘Travel Behavior and Values’, TRR #1985, 2006 at:  http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census_issues/ctpp/articles/uses_of_census_data_in_transportation/page12.cfm

“Aging Cars, Aging Drivers” McGuckin, N. and Liss, S. ITE Journal, September 2005. 

“The Work Trip in the Context of Daily Travel” McGuckin, N., Srivivasan, N., commissioned for the Census Data for Transportation Conference, April 2005 at:  http://www.nctr.usf.edu/clearinghouse/pdf/JTW%20in%20the%20Context%20of%20Daily%20Travel.pdf

“Trip Chaining Trends in the US—Understanding Travel Behavior for Policy Making”, McGuckin, N., Zmud, J. and Nakamoto, Y. Transportation Research Record #1917 2005 at:  http://pubsindex.trb.org/view.aspx?id=771478

“Differences in Trip-Chaining Behavior between Men and Women”, McGuckin, N. and Nakamoto, Y., Research on Women’s Issues in Transportation, Volume 2: Technical Papers, 2005 at:  http://nhts.ornl.gov/1995/Doc/Chain2.pdf

“Journey-to-Work Trends in the United States and Its Major Metropolitan Areas, 1960 – 2000” (Publication no. FHWA-EP-03-058), McGuckin, N. and Srinivasan, N. 2003 at:  ftp://ftp.abag.ca.gov/pub/mtc/census2000/JTW_Trends/Report.htm

“A Walk Through Time—Changes in the Landscape of U.S. Commuting” McGuckin, N., Srinivasan, N ITE Journal 2004. 

“Are Households with Interrupted Phone Service Like Those with No Telephone Service?”   McGuckin, N. Banks, D. and Keyes, M., Transportation Research Record 1768, pp 99-105, 2001 at:  http://nhts.ornl.gov/1995/Doc/notel2.pdf

“Driving to Distractions: Recreational Trips in Private Vehicles” Mallett, W. J. and McGuckin, N., TRR 1719, pp 267-272, 2000 at:  http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=1106082

“Intermodal Truck Traffic: Description and Results of a Survey in Chicago” McGuckin, N. and Christopher, E., ITE Journal, pp 38-41 December, 2000 at:  http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P3-65189773.html

“Exploring the Full Continuum of Travel: Data Fusion by Recursive Partitioning Regression” Contrino, H., McGuckin, N, and Banks, D., International Association of Travel Behavior Research Conference (IATBR), July 2000 

“Work, Automobility, and Commuting: Differences by Race and Ethnic Backgrounds” McGuckin, N., Murakami, E. and Keyes, M. Chapter 5 in Travel Patterns of People of  Color  , PL-FHWA-00-024, June, 2000 at:  http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/trvpatns.pdf

“Understanding Trip-Chaining Behavior-A Comparison of Travel by Men and Women” McGuckin, N. and Murakami, E., Transportation Research Record No.1683, 1999 

NCHRP Report 365 “Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning”, Martin, B. and McGuckin, N. 1996 at:  http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/21000/21500/21563/PB99126724.pdf

“Travel Survey Manual” (in partnership with Cambridge Sytematics), US DOT and US EPA, July 1996, updated by the Travel Survey Methods Committee as a wiki:  http://www.travelsurveymanual.org/

“A Treatise on Trip Generation” Hamburg, J. and McGuckin, N., Barton-Aschman Associates (for distribution), 1990